[kwlug-disc] is AI profitable?

Wed May 27 08:35:12 EDT 2026

I am encouraged, however, by the growing number of cities and towns that
have passed bylaws against any new data centres.  The electrical and water
usage is outrageous.

On Wed, 27 May 2026 at 12:31, Mikalai Birukou via kwlug-disc <
kwlug-disc at kwlug.org> wrote:

> May I have a rant.
>
> - It is an insult to my intelligence to call this next token predictor
> an intelligence. It ain't there.
>
> - I had a tremendous effort to start to peel one person from "it thinks"
> into, "token predictor over patterns", and "those are processes allow
> you to change flow of prediction". Just peeling human into more correct
> mental model, just  a little bit, has immediately allowed that person to
> use this next token predictor based on large language (implicit) model,
> allowed to use it efficiently and with success. Just a modicum of
> understanding that it ain't an intelligence, allows one to move
> further/faster/better.
>
> - Is better name Large Language Condensate, not LL Model ?
> Model implies some explicit thing. Some structure. Some actionable
> structure. Actionable on level of actor, not on a level of automaton,
> which current code is.
> Condensate is random. There is an overarching process of putting meat
> into meat-grinder, but grinding is random, like condensation.
> And then you can distill condensate further, or, quantize it further.
> Right? All of a sudden word condensate makes inroads into quantization
> that let's distilled essence run in smaller memory sizes. Right?
>
> Okay. This was a productive rant.
> Large Language Condensate: LLC.
> And then an accidental analogy in social, Delaware LLC's that make this
> economic f****y ?
>
>
> On 2026-05-27 01:49, Chris Frey wrote:
> > I hope we're not all influenced by it.
> >
> > I compare the site and the "analysis" and end up wondering where all
> > that money is coming from?  Is it all debt?  Wild eyed investment?
> > Stock market gambling?  Government loans or gifts?  CIA black budgets?
> >
> > Real people are losing their jobs while these companies scramble and
> > gamble with other people's money trying to win a race to push even
> > more people out of work.  And while it happens, all this inflated
> > money is distorting the economy, making it harder on the poor.
> >
> > I mean, the inflation caused by AI companies have distorted the economy
> > so badly that huge cloud companies like OVH have to recalculate their
> > costs and prices.
> >
> > My gut reaction is that AI is a bubble, and it will be a glorious
> > day once it pops.  The sooner the better.  I'm not strictly against
> > the tech, I'm against the economic distortion that favours the
> > insider, the billionaire, and the politician at the expense of
> > everyone else.
> >
> > If/When this bubble pops, how many of the CEOs are going to go broke?
> > We all know it's not them who will bear the risk of their actions,
> > nor the cost.  It would be bad enough if AI was a disrupting tech
> > like the automobile that sustained its own growth, but it is not.
> > AI literally robs from everyone (in data, compute, priority, and debt)
> > and yields underwhelming results, partial truths, and lies.
> >
> > Just my $0.02.
> > - Chris
> >
> >
> > On Tue, May 26, 2026 at 10:02:55PM -0400, Remi Gauvin wrote:
> >> I kind of hate how accurately that AI echoed my thoughts, even those I
> >> hadn't really solidified yet.  There's just no way I could read
> >> something like that and not be influenced by it.
> >>
> >>
> >> On 2026-05-26 9:33 p.m., Raymond Chen wrote:
> >>> I sent the link to AI and it responded:
> >>>
> >>> I’d be cautious with  isaiprofitable.com <http://isaiprofitable.com>.
> >>>
> >>>  From what I can tell, it’s more of a provocative “AI economics
> >>> tracker” than a rigorous financial analysis platform. The core message
> >>> — that most AI companies are spending huge amounts while only a few
> >>> infrastructure players like NVIDIA are making large profits — is
> >>> directionally reasonable. Even mainstream coverage has echoed that
> >>> framing.
> >>>
> >>> That said, there are a few things I’d watch for:
> >>>
> >>>    * The site doesn’t appear to provide transparent methodology,
> >>>      audited data sources, or detailed assumptions.
> >>>    * The numbers are likely estimates stitched together from public
> >>>      reports, capex disclosures, and speculation.
> >>>    * “AI profitability” is extremely hard to measure because:
> >>>        o AI revenue is often bundled into cloud/business units
> >>>        o companies capitalize infrastructure differently
> >>>        o R&D accounting varies
> >>>        o many firms are intentionally in growth mode, not profit mode
> >>>
> >>> So the site may be useful as:
> >>>
> >>>    * a conversation starter
> >>>    * a macro sentiment indicator
> >>>    * a simplified visualization of AI spending vs returns
> >>>
> >>> But I would not use it for:
> >>>
> >>>    * investment decisions
> >>>    * precise financial conclusions
> >>>    * technical market analysis
> >>>
> >>> One thing the site /does/ get right conceptually: there’s a real
> >>> distinction between:
> >>>
> >>>   1. Infrastructure winners
> >>>      Example: GPU vendors, cloud providers
> >>>   2. Application-layer AI companies
> >>>      Many are still subsidizing users heavily
> >>>
> >>> A good real-world analogy:
> >>>
> >>>    * During the gold rush, shovel sellers often made steadier money
> >>>      than prospectors.
> >>>    * In AI, NVIDIA selling GPUs has often been more profitable than AI
> >>>      apps trying to monetize end users.
> >>>
> >>> I also couldn’t find much independent reputation history or strong
> >>> third-party validation around the site itself. The only broader
> >>> mentions I found were articles discussing its claims, not validating
> >>> its accuracy.
> >>>
> >>
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