[kwlug-disc] is AI profitable?

[Mikalai Birukou]

May I have a rant.

- It is an insult to my intelligence to call this next token predictor 
an intelligence. It ain't there.

- I had a tremendous effort to start to peel one person from "it thinks" 
into, "token predictor over patterns", and "those are processes allow 
you to change flow of prediction". Just peeling human into more correct 
mental model, just  a little bit, has immediately allowed that person to 
use this next token predictor based on large language (implicit) model, 
allowed to use it efficiently and with success. Just a modicum of 
understanding that it ain't an intelligence, allows one to move 
further/faster/better.

- Is better name Large Language Condensate, not LL Model ?
Model implies some explicit thing. Some structure. Some actionable 
structure. Actionable on level of actor, not on a level of automaton, 
which current code is.
Condensate is random. There is an overarching process of putting meat 
into meat-grinder, but grinding is random, like condensation.
And then you can distill condensate further, or, quantize it further. 
Right? All of a sudden word condensate makes inroads into quantization 
that let's distilled essence run in smaller memory sizes. Right?

Okay. This was a productive rant.
Large Language Condensate: LLC.
And then an accidental analogy in social, Delaware LLC's that make this 
economic f****y ?


On 2026-05-27 01:49, Chris Frey wrote:
> I hope we're not all influenced by it.
>
> I compare the site and the "analysis" and end up wondering where all
> that money is coming from?  Is it all debt?  Wild eyed investment?
> Stock market gambling?  Government loans or gifts?  CIA black budgets?
>
> Real people are losing their jobs while these companies scramble and
> gamble with other people's money trying to win a race to push even
> more people out of work.  And while it happens, all this inflated
> money is distorting the economy, making it harder on the poor.
>
> I mean, the inflation caused by AI companies have distorted the economy
> so badly that huge cloud companies like OVH have to recalculate their
> costs and prices.
>
> My gut reaction is that AI is a bubble, and it will be a glorious
> day once it pops.  The sooner the better.  I'm not strictly against
> the tech, I'm against the economic distortion that favours the
> insider, the billionaire, and the politician at the expense of
> everyone else.
>
> If/When this bubble pops, how many of the CEOs are going to go broke?
> We all know it's not them who will bear the risk of their actions,
> nor the cost.  It would be bad enough if AI was a disrupting tech
> like the automobile that sustained its own growth, but it is not.
> AI literally robs from everyone (in data, compute, priority, and debt)
> and yields underwhelming results, partial truths, and lies.
>
> Just my $0.02.
> - Chris
>
>
> On Tue, May 26, 2026 at 10:02:55PM -0400, Remi Gauvin wrote:
>> I kind of hate how accurately that AI echoed my thoughts, even those I
>> hadn't really solidified yet.  There's just no way I could read
>> something like that and not be influenced by it.
>>
>>
>> On 2026-05-26 9:33 p.m., Raymond Chen wrote:
>>> I sent the link to AI and it responded:
>>>
>>> I’d be cautious with  isaiprofitable.com <http://isaiprofitable.com>.
>>>
>>>  From what I can tell, it’s more of a provocative “AI economics
>>> tracker” than a rigorous financial analysis platform. The core message
>>> — that most AI companies are spending huge amounts while only a few
>>> infrastructure players like NVIDIA are making large profits — is
>>> directionally reasonable. Even mainstream coverage has echoed that
>>> framing.
>>>
>>> That said, there are a few things I’d watch for:
>>>
>>>    * The site doesn’t appear to provide transparent methodology,
>>>      audited data sources, or detailed assumptions.
>>>    * The numbers are likely estimates stitched together from public
>>>      reports, capex disclosures, and speculation.
>>>    * “AI profitability” is extremely hard to measure because:
>>>        o AI revenue is often bundled into cloud/business units
>>>        o companies capitalize infrastructure differently
>>>        o R&D accounting varies
>>>        o many firms are intentionally in growth mode, not profit mode
>>>
>>> So the site may be useful as:
>>>
>>>    * a conversation starter
>>>    * a macro sentiment indicator
>>>    * a simplified visualization of AI spending vs returns
>>>
>>> But I would not use it for:
>>>
>>>    * investment decisions
>>>    * precise financial conclusions
>>>    * technical market analysis
>>>
>>> One thing the site /does/ get right conceptually: there’s a real
>>> distinction between:
>>>
>>>   1. Infrastructure winners
>>>      Example: GPU vendors, cloud providers
>>>   2. Application-layer AI companies
>>>      Many are still subsidizing users heavily
>>>
>>> A good real-world analogy:
>>>
>>>    * During the gold rush, shovel sellers often made steadier money
>>>      than prospectors.
>>>    * In AI, NVIDIA selling GPUs has often been more profitable than AI
>>>      apps trying to monetize end users.
>>>
>>> I also couldn’t find much independent reputation history or strong
>>> third-party validation around the site itself. The only broader
>>> mentions I found were articles discussing its claims, not validating
>>> its accuracy.
>>>
>>
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