[kwlug-disc] is AI profitable?

[Remi Gauvin]

I kind of hate how accurately that AI echoed my thoughts, even those I
hadn't really solidified yet.  There's just no way I could read
something like that and not be influenced by it.


On 2026-05-26 9:33 p.m., Raymond Chen wrote:
> I sent the link to AI and it responded:
>
> I’d be cautious with  isaiprofitable.com <http://isaiprofitable.com>.
>
> From what I can tell, it’s more of a provocative “AI economics
> tracker” than a rigorous financial analysis platform. The core message
> — that most AI companies are spending huge amounts while only a few
> infrastructure players like NVIDIA are making large profits — is
> directionally reasonable. Even mainstream coverage has echoed that
> framing.  
>
> That said, there are a few things I’d watch for:
>
>   * The site doesn’t appear to provide transparent methodology,
>     audited data sources, or detailed assumptions.
>   * The numbers are likely estimates stitched together from public
>     reports, capex disclosures, and speculation.
>   * “AI profitability” is extremely hard to measure because:
>       o AI revenue is often bundled into cloud/business units
>       o companies capitalize infrastructure differently
>       o R&D accounting varies
>       o many firms are intentionally in growth mode, not profit mode
>
> So the site may be useful as:
>
>   * a conversation starter
>   * a macro sentiment indicator
>   * a simplified visualization of AI spending vs returns
>
> But I would not use it for:
>
>   * investment decisions
>   * precise financial conclusions
>   * technical market analysis
>
> One thing the site /does/ get right conceptually: there’s a real
> distinction between:
>
>  1. Infrastructure winners
>     Example: GPU vendors, cloud providers
>  2. Application-layer AI companies
>     Many are still subsidizing users heavily
>
> A good real-world analogy:
>
>   * During the gold rush, shovel sellers often made steadier money
>     than prospectors.
>   * In AI, NVIDIA selling GPUs has often been more profitable than AI
>     apps trying to monetize end users.
>
> I also couldn’t find much independent reputation history or strong
> third-party validation around the site itself. The only broader
> mentions I found were articles discussing its claims, not validating
> its accuracy.  
>