[kwlug-disc] Just Asking

unsolicited unsolicited at swiz.ca
Fri Jun 24 11:33:22 EDT 2011

Bob Jonkman wrote, On 06/24/2011 10:07 AM:
> But I disagree - There is still plenty of market to sell to. The two 
> players that are in hot water have closed and proprietary systems, which 
> were marginal consumer marketshare to begin with.

Is one of these two Nokia? If so, did not Nokia own the cell phone 
market not long ago?

 >  Nokia would have been
> OK if they hadn't moved to a Windows based phone OS.

I have no reason to believe that's true. If Nokia had been ok without 
moving to Windows, they wouldn't have moved to Windows, IMO.

I think Nokia was doomed, regardless. Same as, and in the same way, 
Palm was?

... hmmm ... is RIM where Nokia was? [For all the reasons you mentioned.]

 >  The remaining
> players are those with  (mostly) open Android Linux phones, and Apple.  
> I think there will be further market shakeup, leaving only Android and 
> Apple to duke it out.

Mmm. Don't know about that. Depends if RIM can figure out, implement, 
and deliver, whatever the next generation is, in time. Or keep 
building, at an acceptable level, verticals. [To Kiwi's point, those 
verticals will have to be broadened, horizontally, too.]

Kiwi makes a good point on Android - the lack of breadth that Apple 
has. Not that they're not vigorously working on that. But is that 
(current) Android breadth not ... Google? Which has at least some 
level of resistance, and (currently) some limits - Google being 'only' 
Google, after all.

I wonder if the hard wall Android has in front of it is the same wall 
that the deep penetration of Linux desktops has been unable to manage.

If Android has the same 'hard' limits that RIM does, a non-infinite 
ecosystem, will it ultimately go the way of RIM?

Apple isn't going to take over the world (or it already would have), 
so something supra-Android will emerge. Perhaps from RIM?

(Even if so, the paradigm change has happened - Android / free 
software will never not be a pillar of the environment, again, I expect.)

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